Risk management in Norwegian avalanche rescue operations: Managing uncertainty, complexity, overcommitment and the long-term monitoring of accident risk


Albert Lunde


Avalanche incidents commonly take place in adverse environmental conditions, and the expected survival time of avalanche victims is short. These situations require an immediate rescue response, which may pose a serious challenge to the safety of both rescuers and avalanche victims. Historically, the Norwegian rescue service has experienced few serious accidents, but undesirable incidents where rescuers are dangerously exposed in avalanche runout zones seem more frequent. Risk management in the avalanche rescue service is multifaceted, influenced by its multi-organizational structure. Individuals acting in this socio-technical rescue system are easily caught between two imperatives: saving lives and staying alive. The aim of risk management is to maintain equilibrium in rescue commitment. This project analysed whether the Norwegian avalanche rescue system is correctly balanced to withstand the extra load of common risk influencing factors in rescue operations. Aim: The fundamental aim of this thesis was to contribute to new knowledge on factors that are important for risk management and performance in the Norwegian avalanche rescue service. Methods: Mixed methods research was applied to answer the specific research questions. This implied multiple research activities in a combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Study number 1 was a retrospective study to characterize Norwegian avalanche incidents and rescue response (Paper I). A comprehensive study comprising avalanche rescue statistics, cross-case analysis, factor analysis and risk modelling was conducted to gain insight into avalanche rescue performance (Paper II). In a phenomenological study to explore the concept of overcommitment, nine air ambulance crews from five bases took part in focus group interviews (Papers III and IV). Lastly, a systemic safety analysis was conducted in two separate seminars, supported by the insight of six experts in Norwegian avalanche rescue operations (Paper V). The thesis itself is a cross-paper synthesis of results. Results: The studies returned results which contribute to justified beliefs about patient and rescuer safety in Norwegian avalanche rescue operations. Conclusion: A synthesis of results from the various studies indicates that the Norwegian rescue service is vulnerable to common risk sources in rescue operations, affecting the safety of both rescuers and patients. The avalanche rescue system could benefit from a focus on the integrity of already established safety barriers. This implies an interorganizational effort to identify and reach common goals and system requirements. This thesis may serve as input to discussions on risk acceptance levels in the rescue service, the applicability and validity of control algorithms in rescue management and how to adjust the degree of commitment in various rescue missions.

Author Biography

Albert Lunde

External Consultant
Faculty of Science and Technology
Department of Safety, Economics and Planning
E-mail: albert.lunde@uis.no


Aasland, T., & Braut, G. S. (2018). Ressursene som finner hverandre. Heimen, 55(02), 178-197. https://doi.org/10.18261/issn.1894-3195-2018-02-06

Adams, L. (2004). Supporting sound decisions: A professional perspective on recreational avalanche accident prevention in Canada. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop.

Ash, J., & Smallman, C. (2010). A case study of decision making in emergencies. Risk Management, 12(3), 185-207. https://doi.org/10.1057/rm.2010.2

Ash, J. S., & Smallman, C. (2008). Rescue missions and risk management: highly reliable or over committed? Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 16(1), 37-52. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5973.2008.00528.x

Atkins, D. (2000). Human factors in avalanche accidents. Paper presented at the International Snow Science Workshop, Big Sky, MT.

Aven, T. (2008). A semi-quantitative approach to risk analysis, as an alternative to QRAs. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 93(6), 790-797. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.025

Aven, T. (2012). Foundations of risk analysis (2nd ed.). Hoboken, N. J.: Wiley. 229 pages. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119945482

Aven, T. (2014). Risk, surprises and black swans: Fundamental ideas and concepts in risk assessment and risk management. London: Routledge. 262 pages. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315755175

Aven, T., Boyesen, M., Njå, O., Olsen, K. H., & Sandve, K. (2004). Samfunnssikkerhet. Oslo, Norway: Universitetsforlaget. 296 pages.

Aven, T., & Renn, O. (2010). Risk management and governance: Concepts, guidelines and applications (Vol. 16). Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg: Springer Science & Business Media. 276 pages. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-13926-0_8

BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure. (2017). Backcountry avalanche risk assessment protocol. British Columbia, Canada Retrieved from https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/driving-and-transportation/transportation-infrastructure/highway-bridge-maintenance/avalanche/backcountry_risk_assessment_protocol.pdf

Berner, C. L., & Flage, R. (2017). Creating risk management strategies based on uncertain assumptions and aspects from assumption- based planning. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 167, 10-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.009

Bjordal, H., & Larsen, J. O. (2009). Avalanche risk in a changing climate. Development of a landslide and avalanche risk model. Paper presented at the International Snow Science Workshop 2009, Davos.

Blumen, I. (2012). An update on HEMS accidents, individual risk, and risk management. Paper presented at the Air Medical Transport Conference, Seattle, Wash.

Boeing. (2018). Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents Worldwide Operations | 1959 - 2017. Seattle, USA. Retrieved from http://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/company/about_bca/pdf/statsum.pdf.

Bowen, D. E., & Siehl, C. (1997). The future of human resource management: March and Simon (1958) revisited. Human Resource Management, 36(1), 57-63. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-050X(199721)36:1<57::AID-HRM10>3.0.CO;2-B

Braithwaite, G. (1999). Shaken but not stirring? - The "need to know" basis of aviation safety. Paper presented at the 1999 Australasian Regional Air Safety Seminar, Gold Coast, Australia.

Brandshaug, H. (2011). Den norske redningstjenesten - en studie av en kompleks samhandling (The Norwegian Rescue Service - A study in complex cooperation). (Master's thesis), Høgskolen i Molde, Molde, Norway. Retrieved from https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/153381/master_brandshaug.pdf?sequence=1

Braut, G. S., Rake, E. L., Aanestad, R., & Njå, O. (2012). Risk images as basis for decisions related to provision of public services. Risk Management, 14(1), 60-76. https://doi.org/10.1057/rm.2011.18

Brugger, H., Durrer, B., Adler-Kastner, L., Falk, M., & Tschirky, F. (2001). Field management of avalanche victims. Resuscitation, 51(1), 7-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0300-9572(01)00383-5

Bründl, M., & Etter, H.-J. (2012). Rescue compass - a decision making tool for avalanche rescue. Paper presented at the International Snow Science Workshop 2012, Anchorage, Alaska.

Busterud, H. E. (2016). Forberedt på å bistå ved over 200 snøskred (Prepared to assist in more than 200 road related avalanches). Vegnett, Norwegian Public Roads Administration. Retrieved from http://vegnett.no/2016/12/forberedt-til-a-bista-ved-over-200-snoskred/

Bøhm, M. (2017). Oplevelser fra at blive" ramt" i hverdagens operative indsatser: Brugen af hjelmkameraet som opmærksomhedsunderstøttende teknologi. (PhD), Roskilde Universitet, Roskilde.

Caragounis, V., Hoseth, K. A., Nordvik, H. L., Bjordal, H., Kristensen, L. L., & Viklund, M. (2015). Felthåndbok ved flom og skred (Field manual for floods and avalanches) (Vol. 1.1/2015 ). Oslo: The Norwegian Public Roads Administration, The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and The Norwegian National Rail Administration. 102 pages.

CISA-ICAR. (2019). International Commission for Alpine Rescue. Retrieved from http://www.alpine-rescue.org/xCMS5/WebObjects/nexus5.woa/wa/menu?id=1063

Clark, A. M. (1998). The qualitative‐quantitative debate: moving from positivism and confrontation to post‐positivism and reconciliation. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 27(6), 1242-1249.

Comrey, A. L., & Lee, H. B. (2013). A first course in factor analysis. New York: Psychology Press. 442 pages. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2648.1998.00651.x

Cooper, G. E. (1980). Resource management on the flightdeck. Paper presented at the Proceedings of a NASA/Industry Workshop.

Cronbach, L. J. (1975). Beyond the two disciplines of scientific psychology. American Psychologist, 30(2), 116-127. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0076829

Cruickshank, J. (2012). Positioning positivism, critical realism and social constructionism in the health sciences: a philosophical orientation. Nursing Inquiry, 19(1), 71-82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1440-1800.2011.00558.x

Dekker, S., & Pruchnicki, S. (2014). Drifting into failure: Theorising the dynamics of disaster incubation. Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science, 15(6), 534-544.https://doi.org/10.1080/1463922X.2013.856495

Dewar, J. A. (2002). Assumption-based planning: a tool for reducing avoidable surprises. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 268 pages. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511606472

Dewar, J. A., Builder, C. H., Hix, W. M., & Levin, M. H. (1993). Assumption-based planning; a planning tool for very uncertain times. Retrieved from United States Defense Technical Information Center, Santa Monica, USA: 78 pages.

EAWS. (2016). European Avalanche Warning Services Avalanche danger scale. Retrieved from http://www.avalanches.org/eaws/en/main.php

Endsley, M. R. (1995). Toward a theory of situation awareness in dynamic systems. Human Factors, 37(1), 32-64. https://doi.org/10.1518/001872095779049543

Engeset, R. V., Ekker, R., Humstad, T., & Landrø, M. (2018). Varsom: RegObs-a common real-time picture of the hazard situation shared by mobile information technology. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop, 7-12 October, Innsbruck, Austria.

Etter, H.-J. (2010). Avalanche accident(s) on Drümännler, 3 January 2010. http://www.alpine-rescue.org/ikar-cisa/documents/2010/ikar20100130000515.pdf

Fange, P. Ø. (2010). Redningsmannskaper nær tatt av nytt skred (Rescuers nearly caught by secondary avalanche). Verdens Gang. Retrieved fromhttps://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/i/bRWXB/redningsmannskaper-naer-tatt-av-nytt-skred

Flin, R., O'Conner, P., & Crichton, M. (2008). Safety at the sharp end. CRC Press Taylor & Francis Group. Boca Raton, USA. 330 pages.

Fougner, J., & Holo, L. (2006). Arbeidsmiljøloven: lov av 17. juni 2005 nr. 62 om arbeidsmiljø, arbeidstid og stillingsvern mv: kommentarutgave. Universitetsforl.

Glassett, T. D., & Techel, F. (2014). Avalanche accidents involving people along transportation corridors and the implications for avalanche operations. Paper presented at the International Snow Science Workshop 2014, Banff, Canada.

Greene, E., Wiesinger, T., Birkeland, K., Coléou, C., Jones, A., & Statham, G. (2006). Fatal avalanche accidents and forecasted danger levels: patterns in the United States, Canada, Switzerland and France. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop, Telluride, CO.

Griffith, A. A. (1920). The phenomena of rupture and flow in solids. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Containing Papers of a Mathematical or Physical Character.

Guba, E. G., & Lincoln, Y. S. (1994). Competing paradigms in qualitative research. Handbook of Qualitative Research, 2(163- 94), 105.

Gundrosen, S., Andenæs, E., Aadahl, P., & Thomassen, G. (2016). Team talk and team activity in simulated medical emergencies: a discourse analytical approach. Scandinavian Journal of Trauma, Resuscitation and Emergency Medicine, 24(1), 135. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13049-016-0325-1

Haegeli, P., Falk, M., Brugger, H., Etter, H.-J., & Boyd, J. (2011). Comparison of avalanche survival patterns in Canada and Switzerland. Canadian Medical Association Journal, 183(7), 789-795. https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.101435

Hale, A. (2009). Why safety performance indicators? Safety Science, 47(4), 479-480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2008.07.018

Hayes, J. (2012). Use of safety barriers in operational safety decision making. Safety Science, 50(3), 424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2011.10.002

Heierli, J., Birkeland, K., Simenhois, R., Gumbsch, P. J. (2011). Anticrack model for skier triggering of slab avalanches. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 65(3), 372-381.


Heierli, J., Gumbsch, P., & Zaiser, M. (2008). Anticrack nucleation as triggering mechanism for snow slab avalanches. Science (New York, N.Y.), 321(5886), 240. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1153948

Helmreich, R. L., Merritt, A. C., & Wilhelm, J. A. (1999). The evolution of crew resource management training in commercial aviation. The International Journal of Aviation Psychology, 9(1), 19-32.


Helse og Omsorgsdepartementet. (2005). Forskrift om krav til akuttmedisinske tjenester utenfor sykehus / Regulations relating to acute medical services outside of hospitals. Helse og Omsorgsdepartementet (Ministry of Health and Care Services), Oslo Retrieved from https://www.regjeringen.no/globalassets/upload/kilde/hod/for/2 005/0003/ddd/pdfv/242029-forskrift_ambulanse.pdf

Helse og Omsorgsdepartementet. (2008). St. meld. nr. 47 Samhandlingsreformen Rett behandling-på rett sted-til rett tid. Oslo: Helse-og Omsorgsdepartementet.

Hendrikx, J., & Johnson, J. (2016). Understanding global crowd sourcing data to examine travel behavior in avalanche terrain. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop, Breckenridge, Colorado, USA.

Hendrikx, J., Johnson, J., & Shelly, C. (2016). Using GPS tracking to explore terrain preferences of heli-ski guides. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 13, 34-43.


Herrera, I. (2012). Proactive safety performance indicators: resilience engineering perspective on safety management. (2012:151), Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Engineering Science and Technology, Department of Production and Quality Engineering, Trondheim.

Hill, A. B. (1965). The environment and disease: association or causation? Proceedings of the Royal Society of Medicine, 58, 295. https://doi.org/10.1177/003591576505800503

Hohlrieder, M., Brugger, H., Schubert, H. M., Pavlic, M., Ellerton, J., & Mair, P. (2007). Pattern and severity of injury in avalanche victims. High Altitude Medicine & Biology, 8(1), March 29, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1089/ham.2006.0815

Hokstad, P., Jersin, E., Hansen, K. G., Sneltvedt, J., & Sten, T. (1999). Helicopter Safety Study 2. Retrieved from SINTEF Teknologi og samfunn: https://www.sintef.no/globalassets/upload/teknologi_og_samfunn/sikkerhet-og-palitelighet/rapporter/stf38-a99423.pdf

Hollnagel, E. (2011). RAG-The resilience analysis grid. Resilience engineering in practice: a guidebook. Farnham, Surrey: Ashgate Publishing Limited. pp. 275-296. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781317065265-19

Hollnagel, E. (2013). A tale of two safeties. Nuclear Safety and Simulation, 4(1), 1-9.

Hollnagel, E., Wears, R. L., & Braithwaite, J. (2015). From Safety-I to Safety-II: A White Paper. The Resilient Health Care Net: Published simultaneously by the University of Southern Denmark, University of Florida, USA, and Macquarie University, Australia.

Hopkins, A. (2009). Thinking about process safety indicators. Paper presented at the Oil and Gas Industry Conference, November 2007, Manchester, England.

Hopkins, A. (2011). Risk-management and rule-compliance: decision- making in hazardous industries. Safety Science, 49(2), 110-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2010.07.014

Horgen, A. (2017). Sikkerhetsstatus for friluftslivsaktiviteter i Norge på 2000-tallet (Safety status of outdoor leisuretime activities in the 2000s). Tidsskrift for utmarksforskning 2017-1, 46-67.

Howley, E. K. (2007). Snow avalanche prediction in Grasdalen, Norway: Application of wind drift factors and classification trees. (Master thesis), University of Oslo, Oslo. Retrieved from https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/12462/EmmaHowley_Thesis.pdf?sequence=1

HSE. (2018). ALARP "at a glance". http://www.hse.gov.uk/risk/theory/alarpglance.htm Retrieved from http://www.hse.gov.uk/risk/theory/alarpglance.htm

Hughes, B. P., Anund, A., & Falkmer, T. (2015). System theory and safety models in Swedish, UK, Dutch and Australian road safety strategies. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 74, 271-278. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.07.017

Hume, D. (2003). A treatise of human nature: Courier Corporation. 480 pages.

Johnson, B. C., Jamieson, J. B., & Stewart, R. R. (2004). Seismic measurement of fracture speed in a weak snowpack layer. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 40(1), 41-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2004.05.003

Johnson, J., Haegeli, P., Hendrikx, J., & Savage, S. (2016). Accident causes and organizational culture among avalanche professionals. Journal of Outdoor Recreation and Tourism, 13, 49-56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jort.2015.11.003

Johnson, K. E. (2016). Systems-theoretic safety analyses extended for coordination. (PhD), Wright State University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Johnson, R. B., & Onwuegbuzie, A. J. (2004). Mixed methods research: a research paradigm whose time has come. Educational Researcher, 33(7), 14-26. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X033007014

Johnson, R. B., Onwuegbuzie, A. J., & Turner, L. A. (2007). Toward a definition of mixed methods research. Journal of Mixed Methods Research, 1(2), 112-133. https://doi.org/10.1177/1558689806298224

Jonsen, A. R. (1986). 3. Bentham in a box: technology assessment and health care allocation. Law, Medicine and Health Care, 14(3-4), 172-174. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-720X.1986.tb00974.x

Justisdepartementet. (2015). Organisasjonsplan for redningstjenesten. Kgl.res. 19. juni 2015 med hjemmel i lov 4. august 1995 nr. 53 om politiet (politiloven) § 27. https://lovdata.no/dokument/INS/forskrift/2015-06-19-677

Kaber, D. B., & Endsley, M. R. (1998). Team situation awareness for process control safety and performance. Process Safety Progress, 17(1), 43-48.

Kaplan, S., & Garrick, B. J. (1981). On the quantitative definition of risk. Risk Analysis, 1(1), 11-27. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1981.tb01350.x

Kjellén, U. (2000). Prevention of accidents through experience feedback: CRC Press. https://doi.org/10.1201/b17206

Kjellén, U., & Hovden, J. (1993). Reducing risks by deviation control- a retrospection into a research strategy. Safety Science, 16(3), 417-438. https://doi.org/10.1016/0925-7535(93)90062-I

Kristensen, K. (2016, 6.10.2016). Assigning probabilities in local avalanche forecasting. Paper presented at the International Snow Science Workshop 2016, Breckenridge.

Kristensen, K., Kristensen, C. B., & Harbitz, A. (2003). Road traffic and avalanches - methods for risk evaluation and risk management. Surveys in Geophysics, 24(5), 603-616. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:GEOP.0000006085.10702.cf

Kristensen, K., Kronholm, K., & Bjørdal, N. H. (2008, September 21- 27, 2008). Avalanche characterization for regional forecasting. Paper presented at the Whistler 2008 International Snow Science Workshop.

Kristensen, K., Lunde, A., Skjelbakken, T. A., Hoggen, J. P., Hjelle, M., Torpe, E., & Nordseth, H. (2007). Risk a life to save a life? Risk management in avalanche rescue operations. Paper presented at the International Commission for Alpine Rescue 2007, Pontresina, CH. http://www.alpine-rescue.org/ikar-cisa/documents/2008/ikar20080213000183.pdf

Kronholm, K., Schweizer, J., & Schneebeli, M. (2002). Spatial variability of snow stability on small slopes. Paper presented at the Proceedings International Snow Science Workshop, Penticton BC, Canada, 29 September-4 October 2002.

Kronholm, K., Vikhamar-Schuler, D., Jaedicke, C., Isaksen, K., Sorteberg, A., & Kristensen, K. (2006). Forecasting snow avalanche days from meteorological data using classification trees; Grasdalen, Western Norway. Paper presented at the Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop, Telluride, Colorado.

Kruke, B. I., & Olsen, O. E. (2005). Reliability-seeking networks in complex emergencies. International Journal of Emergency Management, 2(4), 275-291. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJEM.2005.008740

Leveson, N. (2011). Engineering a safer world: systems thinking applied to safety. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press. 534 pages. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/8179.001.0001

Leveson, N. (2013). An STPA Primer Version 1. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Later replaced by the STPA handbook (2018).

Leveson, N. (2015). A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 136, 17-34. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.10.008

Leveson, N., Dulac, N., Marais, K., & Carroll, J. (2009). Moving beyond normal accidents and high reliability organizations: a systems approach to safety in complex systems. Organization Studies, 30(2-3), 227-249. https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840608101478

Leveson, N., & Thomas, J. P. (2018). STPA handbook. In Partnership for Systems Approaches to Safety and Security (PSASS). 188 pages. Retrieved from http://psas.scripts.mit.edu/home/materials/

Leveson, N. G., & Stephanopoulos, G. (2014). A system‐theoretic, control‐inspired view and approach to process safety. AIChE Journal, 60(1), 2-14. https://doi.org/10.1002/aic.14278

Lied, K. (1988). The avalanche accident at Vassdalen, Norway, 5 March 1986. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 15(2), 137-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-232X(88)90060-2

Lied, K., & Kristensen, K. (2003). Snøskred: håndbok om snøskred. Oslo: Vett & Viten. 200 pages.

Lipshitz, R., & Strauss, O. (1997). Coping with uncertainty: a naturalistic decision-making analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 69(2), 149-163. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1997.2679

Litosseliti, L. (2003). Using focus groups in research. London, UK: Continuum. 104 pages.

Lunde, A. (2015). Norske redningsmannskapers skredrisikovurdering og -håndtering ved skred-over-veg-aksjoner. University of Stavanger, Norway.

Lunde, A., & Kristensen, K. (2011). Snøskredulykker og skredofre til fjells 1996-2010 (Avalanche accidents and victims in the mountains 1996-2010). Paper presented at the Skredkonferansen 2011, Tromsø.

Lunde, A., & Kristensen, K. (2013). Avalanche rescue and mission risk in Norway 1996-2010. Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop, Grenoble - Chamonix Mont-Blanc 2013.

Magee, B. (1973). Popper (10th ed.), London: Fontana. 111 pages. March, J. G., & Simon, H. A. (1993). Organizations. 1958. NY: Wiley.

Masys, A. (2012). Black swans to grey swans: revealing the uncertainty. Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 21(3), 320-335.

McCammon, I. (2002). Evidence of heuristic traps in recreational avalanche accidents. Paper presented at the Proceedings ISSW.

McCammon, I. (2004). Heuristic traps in recreational avalanche accidents: evidence and implications. Avalanche News, No. 68, Spring 2004.

McCammon, I. (2009). Human factors in avalanche accidents: evolution and interventions. Paper presented at the International Snow Science Workshop.

McClung, D., & Schaerer, P. A. (2006). The avalanche handbook: Mountaineers Books.

McKie, J., & Richardson, J. (2003). The rule of rescue. Social Science & Medicine, 56(12), 2407-2419. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-9536(02)00244-7

Mellor, M. (1976). A review of basic snow mechanics. In The Grindelwald symposium (Vol. 13, pp. 251-291): International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences and Geomechanics Abstracts, 13(12), A154-A154. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(76)91169-4

Moner, I., Orgué, S., Gavaldà, J., & Bacardit, M. (2013). How big is big: results of the avalanche size classification survey. Paper presented at the International Snow Science Workshop.

Newman, I., Lim, J., & Pineda, F. (2013). Content validity using a mixed methods approach: its application and development through the use of a table of specifications methodology. Journal of Mixed Methods Research, 7(3), 243-260. https://doi.org/10.1177/1558689813476922

Njå, O., Solberg, Ø., & Braut, G. S. (2017). Uncertainty - its ontological status and relation to safety. In: Motet G., Bieder C. (eds) The illusion of risk control. What does it take to live with uncertainty? (pp. 5-21). Springer Briefs in Applied Sciences and Technology. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32939-0_2

NOU. (1986). Norges Offentlige Utredninger 1986 Vassdalen (Official Norwegian Reports 1986 Vassdalen), Ministry of justice and public security, Oslo.

NRR, Nasjonalt Redningsfaglig Råd (National Rescue Council) (2012). Retningslinjer for redningstjeneste ved snøskredulykker (National guidelines for avalanche rescue). Oslo, Norway.

Orset, K. I., Lome, K. B., Humstad, T., Frekhaug, M. H., & Haaland, S. (2017). Snøskred på veg der personer er involvert (Road related avalanches and affected road users). Paper presented at the Skredkonferansen 2017, Åndalsnes.

Penney, G. (2019). Exploring ISO31000 Risk management during dynamic fire and emergency operations in Western Australia. Fire, 2(2), 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/fire2020021

Perrin, B., Barnett, B., Walrath, L., & Grossman, J. (2001). Information order and outcome framing: an assessment of judgement bias in a naturalistic decision-making context. Human Factors, 43(2), 227. https://doi.org/10.1518/001872001775900968

Perrow, C. (1984). Normal accidents: living with high-risk technologies. New York: Basic Books. 386 pages.

Plummer-D'Amato, P. (2008a). Focus group methodology part 1: considerations for design. International Journal of Therapy & Rehabilitation, 15(2), 69-73. https://doi.org/10.12968/ijtr.2008.15.2.28189

Plummer-D'Amato, P. (2008b). Focus group methodology Part 2: considerations for analysis. International Journal of Therapy and Rehabilitation,15(3),123-129. https://doi.org/10.12968/ijtr.2008.15.3.28727

Polit, D. F., & Beck, C. T. (2010). Generalization in quantitative and qualitative research: myths and strategies. International Journal of Nursing Studies, 47(11), 1451-1458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnurstu.2010.06.004

Ponterotto, J. G. (2005). Qualitative research in counseling psychology: a primer on research paradigms and philosophy of science. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 52(2), 126. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-0167.52.2.126

Popper, K. (1976). Conjectures and refutations. The growth of scientific knowledge. 4th edition. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul Limited. 431 pages.

Rasmussen, J. (1997). Risk management in a dynamic society: a modelling problem. Safety Science, 27(2-3), 183-213. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0925-7535(97)00052-0

Rasmussen, J., & Suedung, I. (2000). Proactive risk management in a dynamic society. Karlstad, Sweden: Swedish Rescue Services Agency. 160 pages.

Rausand, M., & Utne, I. B. (2009). Risikoanalyse : teori og metoder.Trondheim: Tapir akademisk forl.

Reason, J. (1997). Managing the risks of organizational accidents. Surrey, England: Ashgate Publishing Limited. 252 pages.

Reason, J., Parker, D., & Lawton, R. (1998). Organizational controls and safety: the varieties of rule-related behaviour. Journal of Occupational and Organizational Psychology, 71(4), 289-304. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2044-8325.1998.tb00678.x

Regjeringen. (1978). Rundskriv G-194/78 Redningstjenesten - Beredskap ved skredulykker (Emergency preparedness for avalanche accidents). Oslo: Ministry of Justice and Public Security.

Regjeringen. (1995). Politiloven (The Police Act), (1995 Nr. 16).

Regjeringen. (2005). The Working Environment Act. Oslo: Justis- og beredskapsdepartementet (Ministry of Justice and Public Security).

Regjeringen. (2015). Organisasjonsplan for redningstjenesten (Plan of organization for the Norwegian rescue service). The Norwegian Government.

Regjeringen. (2018). Håndbok for redningstjenesten (Handbook for the Norwegian rescue service): Oslo. Retrieved from https://www.hovedredningssentralen.no/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Den-norske-redningstjenesten.pdf

Sadler, P., Holgate, A., & Clancy, D. (2007). Is a contained fire less risky than a going fire?: career and volunteer firefighters' perception of risk. Australian Journal of Emergency Management, The, 22(2), 44.

Salas, E., Rhodenizer, L., & Bowers, C. A. (2000). The design and delivery of crew resource management training: exploiting available resources. Human Factors, 42(3), 490-511. https://doi.org/10.1518/001872000779698196

Salas, E., Sims, D. E., & Burke, C. S. (2005). Is there a "big five" in teamwork? Small Group Research, 36(5), 555-599. https://doi.org/10.1177/1046496405277134

Saunes, I. S., Svendsby, P. O., Mølstad, K., & Thesen, J. (May 2010). Kartlegging av begrepet pasientsikkerhet (The concept of patient safety) (ISBN 978-82-8121-329-6). Retrieved from the Norwegian Knowledge Centre for the Health Services: https://www.fhi.no/publ/2010/kartlegging-av-begrepet-pasientsikkerhet-----.

Schulman, P. R. (1993). The negotiated order of organizational reliability. Administration & Society, 25(3), 353-372. https://doi.org/10.1177/009539979302500305

Schweizer, J. (2008). On the predictability of snow avalanches. Paper presented at the International Snow Science Workshop 2008, September 21-27, Whistler, Canada.

Schweizer, J., Kronholm, K., & Wiesinger, T. (2003). Verification of regional snowpack stability and avalanche danger. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 37(3), 277-288 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-232X(03)00070-3

Schweizer, J., & Kronholm, K. (2007). Snow cover spatial variability at multiple scales: Characteristics of a layer of buried surface hoar. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 47(3), 207-223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2006.09.002

Schweizer, J., Mitterer, C., Techel, F., Stoffel, A., & Reuter, B. (2018). Quantifying the obvious: The avalanche danger level. Paper presented at the International snow science workshop 2018, Innsbruck, Austria. http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/item/2706

Skog, O.-J. (2004). Å forklare sosiale fenomener: en regresjonsbasert tilnærming: Gyldendal akademisk.

Starkweather, J. (2014). Factor analysis with binary items: a quick review with examples. University of North Texas Benchmarks.

Techel, F., & Schweizer, J. (2017). On using local avalanche danger level estimates for regional forecast verification. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 144, 52-62. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2017.07.012

Techel, F., & Zweifel, B. (2013). Recreational avalanche accidents in Switzerland: trends and patterns with an emphasis on burial, rescue methods and avalanche danger. Paper presented at the Proceedings International Snow Science Workshop.

Thorsen, H. K., & Njå, O. (2014). Monitoring major accident risk in offshore oil and gas activities by leading indicators. Paper presented at the PSAM 12-Twelfth Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management.

Thurmond, V. A. (2001). The point of triangulation. Journal of Nursing Scholarship, 33(3), 253-258. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1547-5069.2001.00253.x

Tissington, P., & Flin, R. (2005). Assessing risk in dynamic situations: lessons from fire service operations. Risk Management, 7(4), 43- 51. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.rm.8240226

Tschirky, F., Brabec, B., & Kern, M. (2000). Avalanche rescue systems in Switzerland: experience and limitations. Paper presented at the Proceedings International Snow Science Workshop.

Turner, B. A., & Pidgeon, N. F. (1997). Man-made disasters: Butterworth-Heinemann.

Valt, M., Chiambretti, I., & Zasso, R. (2009). 1985-2009 twenty-five years of avalanche accidents in Italy. Paper presented at the International Snow Science Workshop 2009, Davos.

van Herwijnen, A., & Jamieson, B. (2007). Snowpack properties associated with fracture initiation and propagation resulting in skier-triggered dry snow slab avalanches. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 50(1), 13-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2007.02.004

Van Tilburg, C., Grissom, C. K., Zafren, K., McIntosh, S., Radwin, M. I., Paal, P., Haegeli, P., Wheeler, A. R., Weber, D., & Tremper, B. (2017). Wilderness medical society practice guidelines for prevention and management of avalanche and nonavalanche snow burial accidents. Wilderness & Environmental Medicine, 28(1), 23-42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wem.2016.10.004

Vanpoulle, M., Vignac, E., & Soulé, B. (2017). Accidentology of mountain sports: an insight provided by the systemic modelling of accident and near-miss sequences. Safety Science, 99, 36-44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2016.11.020

Vick, S. G. (2002). Degrees of belief: subjective probability and engineering judgement. Reston, Virginia, USA: ASCE Publications. 472 pages.

Vinnem, J. E. (2014). Uncertainties in a risk management context in early phases of offshore petroleum field development. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 32, 367-376. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jlp.2014.10.010

Waldmann, M. R. (1996). Knowledge-based causal induction. Psychology of Learning and Motivation, 34, 47-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-7421(08)60558-7

Walter, M., & Brügger, O. (2012). Lawinenunfälle beim Touren- und Variantenfahren - Unfall-, Risiko- und Interventionsanalys. Retrieved from bfu - Beratungsstelle für Unfallverhütung, Bern: https://www.bfu.ch/sites/assets/Shop/bfu_2.095.01_bfu-Grundlagen%20-%20Lawinenunfälle%20beim%20Touren-%20und%20Variantenfahren.pdf

Watson, S. R. (1994). The meaning of probability in probabilistic safety analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 45(3). https://doi.org/10.1016/0951-8320(94)90142-2

Weick, K. E., Sutcliffe, K. M., & Obstfeld, D. (2008). Organizing for high reliability: processes of collective mindfulness. Crisis Management, 3(1), 81-123.

Wenger, E. (2011). Communities of practice: a brief introduction. Paper presented at the STEP Leadership Workshop, October 2011, Eugene, USA. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1794/11736.

Wenger, E., McDermott, R. A., & Snyder, W. (2002). Cultivating communities of practice: a guide to managing knowledge: Harvard Business Press.

Wenger, E. C., & Snyder, W. M. (2000). Communities of practice: the organizational frontier. Harvard Business Review, 78(1), 139- 146.

Wiig, S. (2008). Contributions to risk management in the public sector. (PhD), University of Stavanger, Stavanger. (UiS no. 48).

Wiig, S., & Aase, K. (2007). Fallible humans in infallible systems? Learning from errors in health care. Safety Science Monitor, 11(3), 1-13.

Winn, W., Thomas, F., & Johnson, K. (2012). Strategies to reduce US HEMS accidents. Air Medical Journal, 31(2), 78-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amj.2011.12.011

Cover for Risk management in Norwegian avalanche rescue operations: Managing uncertainty, complexity, overcommitment and the long-term monitoring of accident risk
January 28, 2020